Iran: Electoral Shock

Arseh Sevom — With only a few weeks until the elections, it’s no surprise that our review focuses on recent developments. The disqualifications of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjan and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s former chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie were big news, if not entirely surprising. The electoral field is now dominated by hardliners loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The fictional campaign of Zahra continues to pick up steam with the endorsements of Shirin Ebadi and Mehrengiz Kar. 

Yer Out!

After the announcement of the Mashaie and Rafsanjani candidacies, there was a thrill of excitement. Maybe the coming presidential elections in Iran would bring surprises. They could be worth watching.

The Crown Center for Mideast Studies published a brief  by Seyedamir Hossein Mahdavi speculating on the possibility of “healthy elections.” Several posts on the Lobe Log expressed surprise when Rafsanjani added his name to the list of candidates.

After the disqualification of both Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie, expectations of an interesting campaign have been muted. Despite this, there is the niggling sense that even an “engineered” vote can send a message.

Upon hearing the news of his disqualification, Rafsanjani strongly criticized [en] the policies of the country’s ruling clerical establishment, stating, “I don’t think the country could have been run worse.”

Explaining his reasons for throwing his hat in the ring, he said:

“There was a flood of letters and telephone calls from Najaf, Qom, and Mashhad. All of the major clerics for my candidacy. How could I be so obstinate and say no to them, especially to the youth?”

He continued [fa] by warning of disintegration in Iran.

“There are two dangerous projects in United States Senate. They are waiting for the election to be decided before taking action. They want to breakup Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan and Azerbaijan provinces.” Rafsanjani said. He may have been referring to a letter from a Republican congressman urging the unification of Azerbaijan province with the country of Azerbaijan and the recent resolution from the Senate foreign relations committee to support Israel in case of a defensive attack on Iran.

Too Old to Rock and Roll

Before the release of the official list of candidates to run in Iran’s 2013 presidential election, there was already speculation that age would be given as the reason to block a Rafsanjani candidacy. Iran Election Watch noted that it was ironic that the 87-year-old head of the Guardian Council would be overseeing the qualification process.

It was clear from the moment Rafsanjani registered as a candidate that he was not guaranteed a spot on the final roster. The hardline Kayhan newspaper, which is aligned with Khamenei, immediately responded with an editorial calling on the Guardian Council to disqualify Rafsanjani. They called him the favorite of the country’s enemies and opposition.

His advanced age (78) was the primary reason given for disqualifying Rafsanjani, himself a member of the ruling elite and head of the Expediency Council. Guardian Council spokesman Abbasali Kadkhodaei stated that this was the first time the Council made a decision based on the candidate’s age.

“Until this election, there has not been a candidate with old age or a specific disability which would require us to provide specific commentary,” Kadkhodaei told Al-Alam Television.

Although extremely critical of the decision, Rafsanjani has not appealed the ruling. Eshaq Jahangiri, head of Rafsanjani’s campaign, was quoted in ISNA [fa]  as saying there would be no objection to the Guardian Council’s decision.

“Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani and his campaign as a whole entered the field on the basis of following the rule of law and morals, and will continue in this way as well,” Jahangiri said.

Can’t We Just Talk About This?

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, on the other hand, said he would challenge the disqualification of Mashaie, calling him a [en] “righteous person and beneficial for the country” according to ISNA [fa]. “In my opinion there will be no problem with the Leader, and I will take up this issue until the last moment with him,..I am hopeful the problem will be solved.”

The Guardian writes that the pro-Ahmadinejad website Iran News Network reported on Monday that a number of campaigners and activists sympathetic to Mashaei had been arrested or brought in for questioning. Several pro-Mashaei websites were also blocked.

The Gang of Eight

More than 680 people registered to run in the presidential election to replace Ahmadinejad. In the end, the field was whittled down to eight: all of them men. The gang of eight includes the following men:

• Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili
• Mayor of Tehran, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
• Former foreign minister, Ali Akbar Velayati
• Former one-term vice president, Mohammad Reza Aref
• Former chief commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rezaie
• Former oil minister, Mohammad Gharzi
• Former chairman of parliament, Gholam Ali Haddad Adel
• Head of the Center for Strategic Research, Hassan Rouhani

Jalili is widely seen as the favourite candidate of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Debates will be held at the end of May and first week of June. Details here…

No Room for Dissent

Iran Election Watch noted that three recent speeches by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei indicate concerns about security as the elections approaches:

Khamenei urged that everybody “obey the law” in case of disagreement with the election result. In the third speech, he asked voters to choose a “resistant” president and he warned the electorate, much more than in the two previous speeches, to be wary of what he called the “enemy’s scheme.”

In keeping with the leader’s security concerns, Iran has launched a public crackdown on dissent before next month’s presidential election. Two men charged with espionage and waging war against God were executed. Activists have been arrested. Campaigners have been summoned for questioning. Political prisoners in some of the country’s most notorious jails have had their parole or visiting rights withdrawn and some transferred to solitary confinement.

The Guardian has launched an interactive guide to Iran’s prisoners of conscience.

Zahra’s Campaign Continues

A fictional character who was the center of the 2009 book Zahra’s Paradise continues to pick up support for her candidacy. Recently Mehrengiz Kar and Shirin Ebadi endorsed her.

Mohammad Reza Sardari and Tori Egherman contributed to this post